A fast move is not automatically a good move. Hitting gains time but can expose your own checker. A block matters only while it survives. First identify whether contact remains or the position is a pure race, then compare complete dice turns.
In this guide
What the pip count measures
The pip count adds each checker’s distance to bearing off; a bar checker counts 25 here. Both sides start at 167 pips. Lower means less distance, but is not a winning probability: blocks, hits and the distribution of home-board checkers are absent from that single number.
Position as text
Light 1 × 6; Light 1 × 3; Dark 1 × 24
Build points rather than tall stacks
Two own checkers make a point inaccessible to the opponent. Extra checkers on it do not strengthen that block. Place spare checkers where they can make new points without leaving several blots at once. Connected blocked points may hold opposing checkers longer than isolated points.
An anchor is a secured own point in the opponent’s home board. It preserves a foothold and prevents all back checkers from being exposed individually. Before abandoning it, compare the safety of running with the value of waiting.
Check both dice before hitting
A blot six points ahead of an opponent is exposed to a direct six, provided compulsory play does not alter the actual turn. With two fair dice, eleven of the 36 ordered outcomes contain at least one six: 6/1 through 6/6 and 1/6 through 5/6. That is 11/36, about 30.6 percent.
This original count is the chance of rolling a six, not the complete hitting probability. 1+5, 2+4 or doubles sequences may add routes; intermediate blocks can close them. Also inspect your home board: putting an opponent on the bar gains less time when most entry points remain open.
A repeatable decision routine
First find compulsory entries. Then compare at least two complete turns: which points are made, which blots remain, and which rolls help the opponent? In a race, inspect distribution and wasted bearing-off distance. Use local Help after making your own choice, then explain the difference. One unlucky roll does not automatically disprove a reasonable plan.